Rana Banerji headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency. You can e-mail the author at rbanerji49@gmail.com
India cannot afford to be complacent about a possible Pakistan resort to military options across the LoC, warns Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
Major General Asif Ghafoor's transfer indicates General Qamar Bajwa is well in control once more, pushing behind the discontent among the peer group of senior generals over extension of his tenure, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
Senior general refuses to retire, reveals Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Ananlysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'A six month extension, if not extended further, would make General Bajwa a lame duck chief, altering the balance of his equations with the senior peer group of lieutenant generals,' says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
Lieutenant General Sahir Shamshad Mirza is the Pakistan army's new chief of general staff, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
It is unlikely Brigadier Raja Rizwan was working for RA&W, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
As many as 17 three star generals will retire before General Bajwa hangs his boots, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
These promotions will allow General Bajwa to shuffle the deck on the top, but this is likely to be a limited reshuffle, points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'With the extension issue settled clearly in his favour, Gen Bajwa would be free to fashion a more hardline policy against India. 'We could, therefore, expect a raising of the ante in Kashmir,' says Rana Banerji.
Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid will take to his new command as duck to water, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'Given the past practice in the Pakistan army, this delay is most unusual,' notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency, on the latest changes among Pakistan's top generals.
General Bajwa gets inputs from his senior officers, but he has the final word, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'Jaish e Mohammed has been allowed to resurge through supported terror actions in J&K in a deliberate tactic by Pakistan, if only to reduce the international pressure on the Lashkar e Taiba leadership after 26/11,' points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
General Bajwa remains in command as army chief and Prime Minister Imran Khan did not play any role in the reshuffle, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
If Imran Khan delays his assent to General Bajwa's recommendations any further, it could imply he is taking stock of possible serious dissent within Pakistan's top army echelons, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
General Bajwa and the outgoing DG, ISI Lieutenant General Naveed Mukhtar, had a long meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan on Friday, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'By convention, the prime minister is technically kept in the loop for the DG, ISI's appointment.' 'It remains to be seen if Prime Minister Imran Khan is able to indicate any preference by then,' says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'Against the backdrop of difficult administrative, political and economic problems, Imran's temperament and staying power will be the subject of intense expectation and public scrutiny,' says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'The army has been open about its determination to keep the PML-Nawaz out of power at all costs.' 'Both the military and the higher judiciary have indicated a preference for Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik e Insaaf,' says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
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